Quantum Computing

Quantum computing, described honestly.

General, useful quantum advantage does not exist today. No vendor roadmap we have read justifies planning a production workload around it. So we build the two things that pay off now — the classical scaffolding and team capability that make you ready, and the post-quantum cryptography migration that is already overdue.

Constraint we design around first
Honesty about timelines. Nothing here is scoped to hardware that has not shipped.
Real today
Hybrid frameworks, HPC simulation, team fluency, post-quantum migration
Not real today
Commercial advantage on optimisation, chemistry or machine learning
Urgent today
Cryptographic inventory and harvest-now-decrypt-later exposure

The Constraint

We design around the timeline, not the announcement.

Every stalled quantum programme we have been asked to review failed the same way. It was scoped to a hardware capability that did not arrive. So we scope to what classical machines can do now, and treat the quantum processor as a back-end that may improve.

Our position, plainly. Today's quantum processors are noisy, shallow and small. Error-corrected logical qubits exist in the low tens at best, and the overhead is on the order of a thousand physical qubits for each logical one. No commercially relevant optimisation, chemistry or machine-learning problem has been shown to run faster, cheaper or more accurately on a QPU than on a well-tuned classical cluster. Several published advantage claims have since been matched or beaten by improved classical algorithms on ordinary hardware. If a supplier tells you otherwise, ask two questions: what was the classical baseline, and what was the wall-clock time including the queue.

What is worth building now

  • Hybrid quantum-classical pipelines where the classical half is engineered properly
  • State-vector and tensor-network simulation on your existing HPC estate
  • Reproducible development environments and continuous integration for circuits
  • Problem encodings kept in version control, reviewed like any other source
  • Post-quantum cryptographic inventory, exposure ranking and migration plan

Fundable · defensible · useful without a QPU

What we will not sell you

  • On-premise quantum hardware. The dilution refrigerator is not your problem to own.
  • A production workload whose business case depends on a QPU result
  • A qubit count as a procurement metric, unattached to a circuit and a problem
  • A quantum machine-learning pilot with no classical baseline beside it
  • A five-year roadmap that assumes fault tolerance arrives on schedule

Declined · with the reason in writing

Hybrid Architecture

Most of a quantum workload is classical code.

A variational algorithm spends the overwhelming majority of its wall clock in a classical optimiser, a scheduler queue and data marshalling. That is the part we engineer, because that is the part that decides whether the experiment finishes.

The variational loop, and where the time goes

Variational algorithms — VQE for chemistry, QAOA for combinatorial problems, parameterised circuits for machine learning — all share one shape. A short quantum circuit produces expectation values. A classical optimiser reads them and proposes better parameters. Repeat, thousands of times, each iteration carrying shot noise.

Treat that loop as ordinary high-performance computing and it behaves. Treat it as a quantum mystery and it stalls on queue waits, unversioned encodings and results nobody can reproduce. We build it with the same discipline we apply to a Slurm-scheduled CFD campaign, because structurally that is what it is.

How we run the classical half
Architecture diagram — variational loop: encoder, transpiler, back-end selector, classical optimiser, result store · 1600×1200
01

Problem encoding

The problem is mapped to a cost function or Hamiltonian, then to a parameterised circuit. Encoding choice moves the result far more than hardware choice does. We keep encodings in version control beside the classical code, with the mapping documented well enough that a reviewer can argue with it.

02

Transpilation to the target

Circuits are compiled to a back-end's native gate set and qubit coupling map. Transpilation is not neutral. Depth and two-qubit gate count change by large factors between optimisation passes, and depth is what decoherence consumes. We record both counts per commit and treat a regression as a build failure.

03

Execution against a selectable back-end

The same circuit runs on a local state-vector simulator, a tensor-network back-end, or a remote QPU behind a broker queue. The back-end is a configuration value, never a code change. That single decision is what lets a team keep working when a QPU is unavailable, expensive or out of jurisdiction.

04

The classical optimiser

Measured expectation values feed COBYLA, SPSA, or a gradient-based method. This is where nearly all the compute time is spent, and it profiles like any other numerical code — vectorisation, parallel evaluation of the parameter batch, and a cache of results so a restart does not repay the whole cost.

05

Validation against a classical baseline

Every run is compared with a classical solver on the same data and the same time budget. The baseline usually wins. When it does, that goes in the headline of the report rather than a footnote, because a research programme that cannot record a negative result will keep paying for the same experiment.

Classical Simulation

Simulation does the real work, and its ceiling is arithmetic.

Exact state-vector simulation is exponential in qubit count. Tensor-network methods reach much further on structured circuits and fail on unstructured ones. Both limits are computable in advance, which makes them honest planning inputs.

Memory first, then interconnect

A state vector holds one double-precision complex amplitude per basis state: 16 bytes each, 2n of them. Allow a further two to three times that for gate work buffers and distributed transposes. Past a single large-memory node the state is split across an MPI rank set, and a two-qubit gate spanning the split becomes an all-to-all exchange.

At that point the simulation is interconnect-bound, not FLOP-bound. We size these runs the way we size any tightly coupled job — InfiniBand or RDMA over converged Ethernet, rank placement pinned to the topology, and NUMA-aware allocation so the transpose does not cross a socket twice.

GPU back-ends move the ceiling to HBM capacity and the NVLink domain. Multi-GPU distribution then behaves like a strong-scaling problem with a very unforgiving communication pattern, and GPUDirect matters more than clock speed.

Exact state-vector memory requirement. Double-precision complex amplitudes at 16 bytes each; add 2–3× for gate work buffers and distributed transposes. Arithmetic, not a product claim.
Qubits Amplitudes State vector Practical host
30 1.07 × 109 16 GiB One workstation
34 1.72 × 1010 256 GiB One dual-socket node
36 6.87 × 1010 1 TiB Large-memory node
40 1.10 × 1012 16 TiB 16+ nodes, RDMA fabric
45 3.52 × 1013 512 TiB Full cluster, communication-bound
50 1.13 × 1015 16 PiB Out of reach by this method

Tensor networks change the question

Matrix-product-state and contraction methods simulate hundreds of qubits when entanglement stays low and circuits stay shallow. Raise the entanglement and the bond dimension grows until the method collapses. A qubit count quoted without the circuit's structure and depth tells you nothing at all.

Noise models cost more than the circuit

Simulating a realistic device means density matrices, not state vectors, and the memory requirement squares. A 20-qubit noisy simulation can cost more than a 40-qubit ideal one. We size for the noise model you actually need, and often the answer is a sampled trajectory approach instead.

36 qubitIdeal state-vector capacity on a single large-memory node we have deployed
42 qubitDistributed state-vector ceiling on a reference 32-node RDMA configuration
4QPU back-ends reachable from one submission layer through brokers
0Client workloads where a QPU beat the classical baseline to date

Development Environments

A quantum programme that cannot run its tests is a slide deck.

We stand up environments your researchers can use on Monday — pinned toolchains, reproducible containers, simulator back-ends sized to the questions being asked, and continuous integration that executes circuits rather than merely linting them.

One environment, several back-ends

Qiskit, Cirq and PennyLane each have gravity in different research communities, and forcing a single framework on a mixed team wastes months. We containerise all three against a shared simulator layer and a shared result store, so a comparison between them is a configuration change rather than a rewrite.

Simulator jobs are submitted through Slurm alongside the rest of your HPC work, with the same accounting and the same fair-share rules. The notebook and API tier runs on Kubernetes so a researcher gets an interactive session without a ticket. Seeds, shot counts and calibration snapshots are recorded with every run, because a quantum result without its metadata cannot be reproduced.

Frameworks
Qiskit, Cirq, PennyLane. Vendor SDKs added where a broker requires one.
Simulators
State vector on CPU and GPU, density matrix for noise studies, MPS and tensor-network contraction for shallow wide circuits.
Scheduling
Slurm for batch simulation with fair-share accounting; Kubernetes for notebooks and the submission API.
Reproducibility
Pinned container images, locked dependency sets, seeds and back-end calibration captured per run.
Classical optimisers
SciPy, Optuna and gradient back-ends, profiled and parallelised like any other numerical workload.
Result store
Shots, expectation values, wall clock, queue time and cost, queryable and retained with lineage.
Sovereignty note. No quantum processor we can reach through a commercial broker is accredited for PROTECTED or above. A circuit submitted offshore takes its structure, its parameters and its measurement results with it, and the circuit itself often encodes the problem you did not want to disclose. For classified work, or anything carrying personal information, we keep the whole loop on in-country simulators and treat brokered QPU access as a research channel only. If that rules out your use case, we would rather say it in the first meeting.

Continuous integration for circuits

Every commit runs the circuit against a small simulator and asserts on more than correctness. Transpiled depth, two-qubit gate count and estimated shot cost are recorded as build outputs, and a regression in any of them fails the pipeline. Numerical results are checked against analytic values where they exist.

Shot budgets and cost guards

QPU time is metered and queues are unpredictable. Each submission carries a shot budget and an estimated spend, checked against the project allocation before the job leaves the building. Jobs that would exceed it are refused with a message, not discovered on an invoice a month later.

Brokered access to third-party QPUs

We do not own quantum hardware and will not pretend to. Access runs through commercial brokers to superconducting, trapped-ion and neutral-atom devices via one submission layer, with queue time, calibration state and cost logged per run so the comparison between back-ends is evidence rather than anecdote.

Capability, not a dependency on us

The deliverable includes your team running the environment without us. Paired sessions on encoding and transpilation, a runbook for the simulator tier, and a written assessment of which of your problems are worth revisiting when hardware improves — and which are not, with the reasoning kept.

Problem Classes

Five claims, five verdicts we will defend.

These are the categories that appear in every quantum business case brought to us. The assessment column is our current engineering view. We will change it when the evidence changes, and we will tell you when we do.

Assessment current at the date of the last review of this page. This is an engineering opinion informed by reproducing published benchmarks, not a survey of the literature.
Problem class The usual claim Our assessment What we would do this year
Combinatorial optimisation QAOA and annealing beat classical solvers on scheduling, routing and portfolio problems. No. On every benchmark we have reproduced, a tuned classical solver — CP-SAT, a good MIP formulation, or simulated annealing — wins on both wall clock and solution quality. Fix the classical formulation. That is usually where the order-of-magnitude sits. Keep a QAOA branch as a research track with a fixed, small budget.
Quantum chemistry VQE will give ground-state energies beyond the reach of coupled cluster. The most scientifically credible class, and still not useful at industrial system sizes. Measurement overhead and noise dominate past a handful of active orbitals. Build the DFT and CCSD(T) pipeline properly first. Use simulators to develop ansatz design and active-space selection so the science is ready when devices are.
Sampling Quantum devices sample from distributions no classical machine can reproduce. The strongest evidence in the field, attached to the least useful problems. Demonstrations use circuits chosen because they are hard to simulate, not because anyone needs the output. Treat as science worth following, not a budget line. Revisit if a sampling task with a real application appears.
Quantum machine learning Quantum kernels and parameterised circuit models outperform classical models. No evidence at useful scale. Reported advantages have generally not survived comparison with a properly tuned classical model on the same data and the same budget. Spend the money on data quality, feature engineering and classical training capacity. The return is larger and it is measurable.
Cryptanalysis Shor's algorithm will break RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography. Correct in principle, and the reason for the next section. It needs millions of physical qubits and error correction nobody has built. The timing is unknown; the eventual outcome is not. Migrate now. This is the one item on the page with a deadline, and the deadline is set by how long your data must stay confidential.

Post-Quantum Cryptography

This part is not speculative, and it is late.

A quantum computer does not need to exist for this risk to be live. An adversary records your encrypted traffic today and decrypts it when the hardware arrives. For anything with a twenty-year confidentiality requirement, the decision has already been made on your behalf.

Harvest now, decrypt later is not a future threat. The harvesting is in the present tense. Only the decryption is in the future.
Cryptography practice lead Cloud Natives — attribution to be confirmed

The migration is a multi-year programme for any estate of consequence, and the hard part is not the algorithms. It is discovery. Most organisations cannot list where they perform asymmetric cryptography, which means they cannot scope the work, cost it, or tell a regulator when it will be finished.

So we start with an inventory and an exposure ranking, not a product. The register that comes out of it is useful even if the timeline slips, because it is the same artefact you need for certificate lifecycle management, for Essential Eight patching evidence, and for any credible audit of key custody.

1 · Cryptographic inventory

You cannot migrate what you cannot find. We inventory every place the estate performs asymmetric cryptography: TLS terminators and load balancers, VPN concentrators, code-signing chains, HSM key ceremonies, database wrapping keys, S/MIME, MQTT and industrial control certificates, firmware with keys compiled in, and the appliance nobody holds credentials for.

Output — register with owner, key type, lifetime, renewal path

2 · Harvest-now-decrypt-later exposure

Rank each data flow by how long its confidentiality must hold. Traffic whose value expires in a week is not urgent. Material with a twenty-five-year classification, health and genomic records, source code for long-lived platforms, and legal holds are urgent today, because a copy taken this year stays readable to whoever eventually acquires the capability.

Output — ranked flows, with the urgent set named

3 · Migration to ML-KEM and ML-DSA

Key establishment moves to ML-KEM, signatures to ML-DSA, with SLH-DSA where a conservative hash-based signature is warranted. In practice we deploy hybrid key exchange first, pairing X25519 with ML-KEM, so a weakness in either component does not cost you the session. Signature migration follows, and it is the slower half because trust anchors move at the speed of their vendors.

Output — sequenced migration plan with rollback at each step

4 · Crypto-agility, not a single swap

The purpose of the exercise is to be able to do it again. Algorithms behind an interface, key types as configuration, certificate lifetimes short enough that rotation is routine rather than an incident. Post-quantum keys and signatures are substantially larger, which changes handshake sizes, packet fragmentation and embedded flash budgets. Test that on the constrained devices first.

Output — agility standard, plus the size and latency evidence

FIPS 203
ML-KEM, the module-lattice key encapsulation mechanism derived from Kyber. Use for key establishment.
FIPS 204
ML-DSA, the module-lattice digital signature algorithm derived from Dilithium. The default signature choice.
FIPS 205
SLH-DSA, stateless hash-based signatures from SPHINCS+. Larger and slower, with the most conservative security argument. Suited to firmware and root signing.
Hybrid TLS
X25519MLKEM768 is already negotiated by current browsers and TLS libraries. Enabling it is the cheapest useful step available to most estates.
Size impact
ML-KEM-768 uses a 1 184 byte encapsulation key and a 1 088 byte ciphertext. An ML-DSA-65 signature is roughly 3.3 kB against 64 bytes for Ed25519. Confirm against the FIPS parameter tables.
Transition horizon
NIST draft transition guidance deprecates 112-bit-equivalent RSA and elliptic-curve use around 2030 and disallows it after 2035. Treat as the outer bound, not the target.
Australian context
The ASD Information Security Manual sets the approved algorithm list and the transition expectations for Australian government systems. Check the current release before committing to a date.

Engagement

Three ways in. None of them is a hardware purchase.

Each is fixed in scope and ends in a written document you can take to a board, a research committee or a regulator — including the parts where our answer is that you should not proceed.

Post-quantum readiness review

Cryptographic inventory, exposure ranking against confidentiality lifetimes, and a sequenced migration plan with owners. The one item on this page we would start this quarter regardless of your view on quantum computing.

Start here

Simulation environment build

A sized simulator tier on your HPC estate or ours, the three major frameworks containerised against it, Slurm and Kubernetes integration, circuit CI, and a runbook your team owns at handover.

Typically 6–10 weeks

Problem feasibility study

One candidate problem, encoded properly, simulated at the largest honest scale, and benchmarked against the best classical solver we can build for it. The report says whether to continue. Most of ours say not yet.

Fixed scope, fixed price

Questions we are asked in the first meeting

Let's Talk

Ask us for the classical baseline first. We will give you the honest number.

Send the problem you were told needs a quantum computer. We will encode it, simulate it at the largest scale the arithmetic allows, benchmark it against the best classical solver we can build, and tell you which one wins. If it is the classical one, you have saved a programme budget.

Post-quantum readiness
hello@cloudnatives.example
Direct line
+61 0 0000 0000

Cleared personnel available for classified discussions. Simulation stays in-country by default.